Tariffs and trade deals

How will Trump's steel tariffs affect us?

The Bank of England is worried. It isn't the tariffs themselves, it is their effect on the trade policies of other nations. They point out: "A major increase in protectionism worldwide could [increase] global inflation."

This is exactly what we don't need with Brexit uncertainty already hitting UK growth.

Meanwhile we still don't have those 'roll-over' trade deals that Mr Davis promised. Currently, as part of the EU, we have free-trade deals with 70 countries outside the EU. Not one of them has yet agreed to continue trading with us on the same terms as at present. Mr Davis's letter explaining why we are leaving the customs union didn't even mention free trade, instead talking about  a wish to "build deeper links" and "tap into fast-growing markets".

In fact, in March next year those 70 countries can terminate our current agreements despite the transitional deal. The EU has suggested that they wait until the transitional period finishes in 2020, but it isn't up to the EU. Clearly we might need to make some concessions to help persuade them to agree to 'roll-over' the agreements.

Given that we will be desperate, expect some hard-nosed negotiations, especially around immigration. For example, India wants 12,000 UK visas a year - something we denied them in 2010 and refused again this year. The EU itself is already angling for a special deal for EU businesses. Do we sacrifice control of immigration to economic necessity?

This is happening just as our merry band of trade negotiators are meant to be scouring the rest of world for deals (so far with a complete lack of success - so admittedly things can't actually get worse). We are leaving the sheltered waters of a frictionless customs union to battle our way through the stormy seas of cut-throat international trade, being forced into unpalatable concessions to ensure our economic survival.

Make no mistake, no-deal will be brutal for many employees, and the Devil take the hindmost. We could end up returning to Victorian values with Mr Rees-Mogg at the helm, tearing up rules and regulations, with industrial barons exploiting the workers, industrial safety a fading memory, and widespread poverty.

No doubt we will weather this, as we have far more serious crises. I just would prefer not to have to live through it myself. This has been inflicted on us by the self-interest of a small band of politicians and business people exploiting the serious discontent of a minority - a numerous minority, but still a minority. 17 million voted Leave, out of an electorate of 47 million, and a UK population of 67 million. Yet this is called "the will of the people"? No wonder the Brexit club don't want another referendum.