To maintain the trade that we currently have we need to re-establish 750 agreements, ones which can't just be rolled over. Non-tariff barriers will also increase post-Brexit (unless we stay under the ECJ umbrella and become an EU rule-taker).
Our chief trade negotiator, Mr Falconer, is very keen to scrap current regulations in order to improve our chances of making deals post-Brexit. Mr Falconer is Special Trade Commissioner for the Brextremist Legatum Institute and wants a hard Brexit.
A no deal with the EU means he can put current UK regulations 'on the table' in any trade negotiations. An example would be to allow the import of chlorinated chicken, hormone-treated beef and GM (genetically modified) foods from the USA. EU regulations do not allow these to be sold in the EU. However, if we wish to trade with the US they will want to sell us these products.
Leaving the EU completely would allow us to alter food regulations. It looks like an easy win. We get a trade deal and we get cheaper food.
Of course, if our own farming industry wished to compete then farmers will need to use the same methods to reduce costs. If they do so, however, then they will no longer be able to export their products to the EU. So UK producers will have to make a choice - sell to the EU or sell to the UK.
It would be possible for some farmers focus on one market and others to concentrate on different markets. Australia already facilitates both - they track beef to ensure that hormone-treated meat isn't exported to countries where it is banned.
If we do that then we will need all the compliance machinery in place - inspectors, product tracking and dispute resolution, and we need it as soon as possible.
Clearly it is vital therefore that the government is talking to businesses, finding out what would suit them best and what problems they predict. The US, for example, produces an annual 500-page document on barriers US businesses face when exporting.
We don't. In fact UK businesses complain that the government isn't communicating at all. Information on government plans for Brexit can only be accessed by senior officials using highly secure 'Rosa terminals'. Their juniors ask business representatives questions. They even seem to listen, but nothing come back. Of course, the evidence is that there are no plans to communicate.
Even worse, the government hasn't yet talked to all those small businesses which export only to the EU. Businesses that have never yet had to fill in a customs declaration. Nor have officials explained to larger firms how they are going to be supported. One freight firm will have to fill in half a million extra declarations each year, requiring them to find an extra 100 staff, just when everyone else also wants more staff to fill in custom forms.
Mr Barnier wants to know what model we favour. If only we knew, Mr Barnier.
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