The Conservatives were always against the idea of a 'European Army', they now seem to be against having a Royal Navy. The latest plan is to reduce our 6,400-strong Royal Marines by over 10% and scrap the navy's only pair of amphibious assault ships. Another plan is to cut the British Army from 82,000 to 65,000 (a 20% cut). Given they can't recruit soldiers to fill the current places, this may be forced on them anyway.
Meanwhile our entire fleet of destroyers is becalmed in Portsmouth due to technical problems with their engines and a lack of sailors. These ships are only eight years old, but are not able to operate reliably in the Middle East because the seawater there is too warm for the engines. HMS Diamond had to limp back to port due to a propeller problem, leaving not a single RN ship in the Gulf. We can't even send a frigate as not one of the thirteen we have is ready for deployment.
Overall the MoD will have a £20 billion hole in its budget over the next decade while the cost of maintaining our defence forces keeps going up, President Trump is talking about quitting Europe and NATO, and Russia under Putin and China under Xi Jinping are both expansionist, moving armed forces into neighbouring territories and threatening further incursions.
Not the best time to cut loose from our allies then.
Sunday, 10 February 2019
Thursday, 7 February 2019
Brexit means Brexit - but is now the time?
People do make big changes in their life - a new job, a new house, marriage - and because it is a big change they take time to do it right.
Someone considering a new direction in their career will get advice, join an employment bureau, decide what they need from the new job, sift through the posts available, research companies, go to interviews - and meanwhile they will discuss with their current employer how their current job could be changed to meet their new needs.
Sometimes they find the dream job and leave. Sometimes their current company wants them enough that they stay but with a new package. Sometimes they see what is happening around them, in their industry, in the economy, and decide it is better to wait for a better time.
Britain is in that situation right now. We handed in our resignation to the EU after being refused a better deal to stay in, and now we are reaching the day that we must clear our desk. Unfortunately we haven't managed to find a better job and - worse - the economic situation has taken a decided turn to the worse.
The USA, which the Leave team was relying on for a juicy trade deal, is now led by a protectionist who has already abandoned a regional trade deal, covering all of North America, and has imposed duties on a number of goods in order to reduce imports. He came close to wiping out one of our aircraft manufacturers with punitive duties last year. Fortunately Mr Trump was prevented by his own judiciary - he wasn't moved a millimetre by Mrs May's protests.
The Eurozone is also sliding towards protectionism, with state support of strategic industries to shield them from overseas competition - i.e. clamping down on free trade - while continuing to agree zero tariff deals with other big exporting nations. They have just added Japan to the list.
In contrast, we currently have zero tariffs with the EU (and the other nations that the EU has made trade agreements with) but are going to lose that deal when we leave. We will have renegotiate carefully just to get a worse deal - and with all those nations we are trading with currently under EU deals. Just when things are getting harder economically.
Our own economy continues to do well pre-Brexit, but even here there are warning signs which have nothing to do with Brexit. Carillion's collapse has reinforced concerns about the other large outsourcing companies which also look rather shaky. Car manufacturers have been winding down production due to the scandal over diesel vehicle emissions and the resulting crash in sales.
However, now Brexit is almost here, with no plan in place and a no deal looking more and more likely, car manufacturers and other large exporters are taking more direct action. Nissan has decided to move production of its X-Trail sports utility vehicle to Japan, the Micra is now built in France. Financial companies are starting to shift staff and services to EU countries. Even our universities are setting up overseas campuses as students start to shun the UK due to perceived xenophobia and the increasing difficulty of getting a study visa.
Look around. This is simply not the right time to leave. Let us hope that Mrs May does manage a sensible deal with the EU. We need to diverge strategically from the EU over time rather than rip ourselves away unprepared, exposing ourselves rudderless to an increasingly hostile world economy.
Someone considering a new direction in their career will get advice, join an employment bureau, decide what they need from the new job, sift through the posts available, research companies, go to interviews - and meanwhile they will discuss with their current employer how their current job could be changed to meet their new needs.
Sometimes they find the dream job and leave. Sometimes their current company wants them enough that they stay but with a new package. Sometimes they see what is happening around them, in their industry, in the economy, and decide it is better to wait for a better time.
Britain is in that situation right now. We handed in our resignation to the EU after being refused a better deal to stay in, and now we are reaching the day that we must clear our desk. Unfortunately we haven't managed to find a better job and - worse - the economic situation has taken a decided turn to the worse.
The USA, which the Leave team was relying on for a juicy trade deal, is now led by a protectionist who has already abandoned a regional trade deal, covering all of North America, and has imposed duties on a number of goods in order to reduce imports. He came close to wiping out one of our aircraft manufacturers with punitive duties last year. Fortunately Mr Trump was prevented by his own judiciary - he wasn't moved a millimetre by Mrs May's protests.
The Eurozone is also sliding towards protectionism, with state support of strategic industries to shield them from overseas competition - i.e. clamping down on free trade - while continuing to agree zero tariff deals with other big exporting nations. They have just added Japan to the list.
In contrast, we currently have zero tariffs with the EU (and the other nations that the EU has made trade agreements with) but are going to lose that deal when we leave. We will have renegotiate carefully just to get a worse deal - and with all those nations we are trading with currently under EU deals. Just when things are getting harder economically.
Our own economy continues to do well pre-Brexit, but even here there are warning signs which have nothing to do with Brexit. Carillion's collapse has reinforced concerns about the other large outsourcing companies which also look rather shaky. Car manufacturers have been winding down production due to the scandal over diesel vehicle emissions and the resulting crash in sales.
However, now Brexit is almost here, with no plan in place and a no deal looking more and more likely, car manufacturers and other large exporters are taking more direct action. Nissan has decided to move production of its X-Trail sports utility vehicle to Japan, the Micra is now built in France. Financial companies are starting to shift staff and services to EU countries. Even our universities are setting up overseas campuses as students start to shun the UK due to perceived xenophobia and the increasing difficulty of getting a study visa.
Look around. This is simply not the right time to leave. Let us hope that Mrs May does manage a sensible deal with the EU. We need to diverge strategically from the EU over time rather than rip ourselves away unprepared, exposing ourselves rudderless to an increasingly hostile world economy.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)