If you want to make deals you have to accept rules

Manufacturing output in the UK is dropping while our trade deficit is growing (£1.9 billion and counting). For example, Jaguar Land Rover has started moving more production to Slovakia. Manufacturing only makes up a fifth of the UK economy, but where is the promised export-led recovery? Right now we are at the bottom of the international growth league, with the Eurozone comfortably ahead of us. Worse - we are only ranked 60th out of 136 countries for openness to trade.

UK construction activity also fell by 2% in the same period. Overall UK growth is at its weakest for 70 years and is expected to remain in the doldrums for some years.

So why was manufacturing expected to expand with Brexit? Ironically it was based on our weak economy. The crash in the value of the pound (and its expected continued fall) makes our exported goods much cheaper than they were, while the growth in the Eurozone means people in our biggest export markets have more money to spend (last year 49% of our exports went to the EU).

However, to increase exports we need to go out and sell to new markets. This isn't happening. Instead the fall in manufacturing output is matched by falling investment. Both are due to the uncertainty about what deal we will strike with the EU. Manufacturers and exporters are holding back until they know what is going to happen. Why chase new customers when no-one knows what rules will apply next year?

We still don't know what trade deal we will have, with departure only weeks away. Will we still have access to our largest and closest market? If we tumble out of the single market and end up trading under WTO rules then our exports will suffer under large tariffs. Worse, if we refuse to keep regulatory alignment with the EU, our biggest trading partner, then we won't even be able to sell into the market at all.

The irony is that Brexit hard-liners talk up trade, but don't seem to understand it. They want the bare minimum of WTO rules and a regulatory bonfire. They have yet to understand (as Mrs May has already admitted) to trade with other nations it is not enough to strike down our own rules to allow imports, we also need to accept their rules so we can export to them. Remove regulations and we can import more cheaply, but it would actually reduce our exports.

For example, some of our most successful - and lucrative - exports are services not manufactured goods, in particular we are internationally famous for financial services. Shoddy financial services can have a serious impact on people's lives, so they are heavily regulated. If we are to sell overseas we need to ensure that our companies adhere to overseas rules.

Exiting the EU, we need to choose whether to become rule-takers or not. We can be deal-makers either way.. However, rule-takers can make bigger deals.