Free trade and the USA

Where are those trade deals we were promised? According to the Brexit cheerleaders we would have a queue forming at our national door, hoping to strike an agreement with us. The EU would be first - Mr Davis said it would be the easiest deal ever done. Then the USA, followed by everyone else. The gold at the end of the Brexit rainbow was increased trade and reduced immigration.

So they were wrong - but worse, the reality for trade post-Brexit is the opposite of what they promised us (and we still don't know what is going to happen about immigration).

The president of the European Council, Mr Tusk, has said "Ireland first" - before talks can progress the Irish border arrangements must be sorted out. The EU won't accept a hard border between North and South as part of the deal. It isn't even a ploy - clearly we can't make any real progress in trade arrangements when we don't even know how the land border between the UK and EU will operate.

OK, so maybe while we scratch our heads about Ireland we can at least suck up to the US. We have already invited the President over, and gave him the royal treatment. Maybe we should appoint Mr Farage as our US ambassador.

If only Mr "America First" Trump could be so easily won over. Mr Trump is not a big fan of free trade. We have already had to fight protectionist tariffs of 292% (yes, two hundred and ninety-two percent - turning a £10 component into a £40 one) that he wanted to put on aircraft imports, threatening the future of at least one large factory in Northern Ireland. Mrs May repeatedly pleaded with him to reconsider but he ignored her. Fortunately for us his own US International Trade Commission ruled the tariffs to be illegal.

Now he has imposed punitive duties on imported steel. We export around 15% of our steel to the US, exports worth £360 million. Mrs May has again appealed to him to reconsider but he has simply responded that if we retaliate then he will put tariffs on cars too.

Government analysis shows that around half of the trade benefits of leaving the EU would have come from a US-UK deal. A deal that is looking more and more remote by the day.

Fortunately, the Brextremists are nothing but adaptable. As they haven't put any real thought into how to turn any of their promises about 'sunlit uplands' into actual deals it is simple enough for them to change the words while singing the same tune. A leading Brexiteer minister, Mr Raab, is now saying, "The real opportunities for the future will be those emerging markets", though he is careful to avoid stating exactly which countries we should target.

Let's hope those opportunities really exist, as all the Brexiteer economic hype and promises depend upon them. Let us hope, as the US and China gear up for a trade war, that those countries don't say "Me First" too.