Post-Brexit?

So what happened to the post-Brexit economic disaster?

We were told that if we voted for Brexit then the economy would tank immediately. Instead it is stronger than ever. So it looks like all that doom-mongering was a just Project Fear fantasy, right?

Well, first of all remember that Mr Cameron said that if Leave won then he would trigger Article 50 immediately. Economic projections were made on that basis. Article 50 still has not been triggered (though you would have thought we had already left from the way some people go on, and even 'quality' newspapers talk about us being 'post-Brexit' - err, no we aren't, and we won't be for another two years).

Secondly, there have been effects already - we haven't even started to leave and already the pound has dropped like a stone (not a kilogram, note - get used to Imperial again: pecks, bushels, grains, pains and groans). Down around 19% since the referendum. HSBC have released their Brexometer which says 'diamond-hard' Brexit will leave the GBP at 1.1 USD (we are already down at 1.2 USD from 1.5 USD, so not much further to fall at least).

However we haven't really felt it yet in the UK as many importers insured themselves against exactly this. These 'hedges' are starting to run out. For example, What Car magazine reports that SUVs now cost 12% more than before the referendum.

Remember this is just the exchange rate - nothing else. Using the Brexometer the worst case for this single effect will be import prices going up by about a third - but then 33% is quite a rise given how much we import, especially food. Just check your local supermarket's Country of Origin stickers.

With 19 million people earning less than the minimum income standard even a small increase in inflation can spell disaster as they have little spare money, and a large proportion of their income goes on necessities such as food. Mrs May's JAMs are indeed being singled out by her - they will sink first.

The NHS

The Health Service and Brexit

"​30,000 nurses could be deported under Tory migrant rules"
https://www.rt.com/uk/268897-nurses-deported-tory-migrants/

The NHS is coming under more and more budgetary pressure, with our ageing population requiring more care for longer, and with the cost of care increasing faster than inflation. Successive governments have tried to keep the cost down, and have actually done a fair job:

"Health care expenditure in the United Kingdom as a share of GDP, although it has increased, is low in comparison with other European countries...[at] 6.9% of GDP which is amongst the lowest in the European Union {7.7%}". Despite this "most health indicators in the UK population rank within the EU average."
http://www.europarl.europa.eu/workingpapers/saco/pdf/101_en.pdf (this is a PDF)

However costs will continue to increase - and Brexit is already contributing with the fall of the pound. All sides agree that an economic downturn is coming and tax receipts will fall, so there will be even less money for the NHS (which is 95% tax funded).

So the announcement by Mrs May that nurses will be thrown out with the rest of the migrants could in fact be a stroke of genius. Not only does she reduce migrant numbers significantly (4% of NHS nurses are EU immigrants - and numbers are increasing as fewer nurses are being trained here https://fullfact.org/immigration/immigration-and-nhs-staff/) but the reduction in staffing will provide appreciable savings.

Note that doctors are currently not going to be thrown out - though this is because they are paid more than nurses (Mrs May is only chucking out people on low pay). However she may be looking ahead - with fewer nurses some wards will need to close, so fewer doctors will be needed - and then she can start chucking them out too, saving even more money.

Am I being ironic?

I hope so.

What's it all about?

The referendum result was a surprise, but what has been shocking has been the political reaction. Resignations aplenty, MPs voting en masse against their conscience, threats to dissolve the Lords, attacks on our judiciary for upholding the law, an unelected PM attempting to ignore democratic accountability and prevent any public debate while repeating "the will of the people". The same PM who in pursuit of a trade deal throws herself at the feet of a protectionist demagogue while repeating the mantra"free trade".

I voted Remain, and would vote that way today. If you voted Leave then I respect your freedom to make that choice. Leave gained a fraction more votes, so it is right that that should be the focus, but why is it that such a vitally important negotiation is in the hands of an unelected PM who refuses to ask what sort of Brexit we want, who refuses to tell us what she is going to ask for, who refuses to give us a choice - only that if we don't take what we are given then we will just crash out of the EU with no agreement.

Why is Mrs May adamant that she wishes to be out of the EU within the next two years? Why has a lukewarm Remainer become a Hard Brexiteer? Why has she squashed debate and fought legal safeguards in her stampede for the Brexit? She won't get the best deal for Britain this way, and her "just-about-managing" constituents will not welcome the economic hit.

We are told that Brexit is about immigration and sovereignty - well, it is for Mrs May but I don't know about the Leave voters. Who asked them?