Tit for tat

The lessons of the Bombardier affair should be heeded by the no-deal Brextremists. The USA and Canada have a trade deal (NAFTA), but when Boeing decided to use its leverage to shut down a foreign rival the US administration jumped to do Boeing's bidding. The US Commerce Department imposed punitive duties of 220% on the Bombardier aircraft - far greater than Boeing asked for.

The reason given was that Bombardier had benefitted from unfair subsidies given by the Canadian government and so the planes were being sold at less than fair value. The fact that Boeing is heavily subsidised by the US government was irrelevant.

Post-Brexit we will be in a similar position - our access to the EU market will depend upon a trade agreement and how well that works will depend upon both our adherence to EU regulations and our economic strategy.

Mrs Merkel has warned that if, for example, UK environmental regulations were to be relaxed then the reduced cost of complying would have to be balanced by added duties on our exports, to ensure fair competition.

This is sensible and fair. It also prevents a 'race to the bottom' where countries cut all regulations in order to compete.

However, Bombardier's troubles demonstrate that in real life 'sensible and fair' depend on one's viewpoint. Once we are cut adrift from Europe the EU will have no interest in supporting and protecting our industries, the members will be supporting their own industries. In many cases it will be in the EU's long-term interest to encourage our current industries to relocate to Europe anyway. It makes no sense for euro-clearing services to be based in London. It makes no sense for EU-made car parts to be exported to the UK for assembly and then the cars re-exported to the EU.

The most important lesson, however, is that it won't be the politicians who will be in control. It will be the producers. Any large industrial sector has a lot of political muscle, from contributing to party funds, from the votes and actions of their members. A case in point is the French farmers who are always ready to take direct action by blocking roads and destroying imported food.

We need to secure a free trade deal with the EU. If Mrs May and Mr Davis cannot manage this then we need someone who can. Leaving the EU is going to put us in a weak position. Leaving without a deal will put us in the worst of positions. The no-deal Brexiteers would discover that those sunny uplands suffer a lot of bad weather.