Wednesday, 4 October 2017

Dancing to Mr Juncker's tune

Mrs May is starting to be more realistic about Brexit. She is even starting to give hints about what her aims are in the negotiations, though she is not one to follow through on her promises.

She accepts that we owe our European partners what we have promised them. She accepts that we need a transition period to give us some chance to refocus our economy. She accepts that we need regulatory parity with the EU during the process. Rather surprisingly, Mr Davis appears to be going along with her, a promising sign.

Ironically Mrs May's domestic influence is now negligible. Her own ministers announce Brexit 'red lines' that contradict hers, the chairman of the 1922 Committee controls her through his control of the Tory Brextremists, each headline policy she announces drops by the wayside within weeks. Her early zeal for reform appears to have been powered by her ex-advisers.

It may well be that Mrs May feels she is in a zugzwang at home, that whatever she does will make things worse, which is why she is doing nothing, why she retreats at the first sign of a challenge to her policies, why she stands silently by as her colleagues openly plot against her. Though she talks about fighting the next election, everyone else is discussing who should replace her.

Her softening stance on Brexit may be a sign that she has decided to stand up for herself, to push through her own vision of post-Brexit Britain, to ignore the Eurosceptic demands, putting the welfare of the British people before the fantasies of ideologues. What does she have to lose?

Or it may be that, as was predicted, our negotiators are entirely outclassed, and Mrs May is now dancing to Mr Juncker's tune.

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