At the moment we import 70% of our food from the EU. It will take time to replace this with home-grown food or imports from other countries if we exit without a trade deal.
Why should that be a concern? After all, EU farmers will still want to sell to us whether we are in the single market or out of it.
The concern is the cost. If we crash out of the EU without a deal and fall back on WTO tariffs or worse then we will have to pay WTO tariffs on all our imports. Note that under WTO rules we have to charge/pay tariffs unless there is a negotiated agreement - we can't simply casually agree to ignore them, even if neither side wants them. Tariffs on trade within the EU single market are around 1%, WTO tariffs are higher - a lot higher for food and textiles. For example, Ireland exports mostly food to the UK. Tariffs will add around 18% to the price they must charge for their products.
These increased costs will obviously mean prices increase. Meanwhile our exports will also be more expensive (those tariffs again) so will be less competitive. Our volume of exports to the EU will fall by over 20%. Around 10% of our current exported products will no longer even be worth exporting as no-one will buy them. Some entire product categories will essentially disappear - the clothing trade will fall by 99%, sugar/confectionary 95%, meat/flour 90%.
These effects, combined with the continued fall in real wages, means UK living standards will be squeezed even harder.
The response of Mr Grayling, a cabinet minister no less, is that all we have to do is grow more in the UK. This comment is so fatuous it simply underlines that there is no plan.
Whatever the long-term intentions of the Brextremists, right now they must accept that we need a transitional deal. They should support Mrs May in her negotiations and stop posturing about payments. The price of an agreement is far less than the price of no agreement.
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