Monday, 2 October 2017

A special relationship

Bombardier's Belfast factory employs 4200 people directly, with the livelihoods of many more depending upon it - up to 10,000 UK jobs are at risk if it closes. The factory makes wings for the Canadian company's C Series Jet. A perfect example of what we will be aiming for post-Brexit.

...unfortunately.

The US aircraft company Boeing has complained that their rival's C Series Jet had received British and Canadian subsidies and so is being sold below its true market value, therefore it is unfair competition. Boeing has asked for a tariff of 80% to be levied on sales in the US.

Mrs May phoned Mr "America First" Trump, to persuade him to refuse this demand... unsurprisingly, far from refusing or reducing it the tariff has now been set at 220%.

Welcome to the reality of global trade. Global trade means complex supply chains, spanning the world. It means that a disagreement between Canada and the US could close a large factory in the UK and we have no recourse.

The story is even more complex than that. We have two contracts with Boeing which we could threaten to cancel, but Boeing have a large factory in the UK which they could close. Our military aircraft are also maintained by Boeing - and that means a lot more than polishing their engines. Boeing could quite literally lock up our fighter jets and throw away the digital keys.

Naturally the Belfast factory is also right in the centre of the DUP's political constituency - that's the same DUP that Mrs May gave a bung of £1 million to for their votes. As you can imagine, they expect Mrs May to sort it all out pronto.

There is some hope. The US and Canada both belong to a free trade association - NAFTA. Canada could appeal to them to squash the tariff.

A pity then that we are abandoning our own free market association, which currently takes 40% of our exports. Leaving the EU umbrella, with its tight interdependent trade links, makes us highly vulnerable to disputes such as this. As one example, our specialist automotive component manufacturers turn over £4 billion each year, with a market growing at 25% a year - a market which is mostly European. If tariffs are imposed then that puts 78,000 jobs at risk.

When Brextremists urge the Queen to kowtow to Mr Trump, when Mrs May trundles to the US, cap in hand, to beg for favoured treatment, the mantra is repeated: "The Special Relationship". How blind are those that will not see. They should be looking east, not west. We do have a Special Relationship, but it is one we are bent on destroying.

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