The Florence speech

Mrs May's Florence speech was full of promises but held little on what she is aiming for. As an attempt to break the deadlock in negotiations it may succeed, accepting publicly that the UK will pay into the EU budget until 2020, offering free movement during a two-year transition period and to abide by ECJ decisions.

What she didn't explain was what will happen after the two years. She said what she doesn't want as the UK's future, but not what she does want.

One commentator suggests that Mrs May could simply be using the speech to set up a walk out, however it is more likely an attempt to give herself time. If the EU do agree to a transition period then her trade negotiators have the next 18 months to train up and made contacts, then two years to negotiate trade deals, potentially reducing the economic dislocation caused by dumping our main trading partner (44% of our exports go to the EU).

Meanwhile by keeping secret the details of the preferred final deal she keeps her own party in the dark, so each faction can still hope that their chosen destination is the real one. With a paid-for bare majority the real problem she has is with her own MPs. Never mind Brussels.

So we still don't know what to expect.