Dunkirk

So we need the Dunkirk spirit now to see us through Brexit, according to the Brexit cheerleaders.

It is hardly worth deriding this, nor is it worth pointing out that this is a different song to the one that the Leave campaign was singing prior to the referendum. However it is worth challenging the intended message - that we have to suffer now but we will then reach those sunny uplands of victory.

The best analysis is by Jenni Russell. She points out that our status as the world's fifth biggest economy rests on our membership of the EU. In the same way that an assembly line worker can produce far more than a piece worker due to the efficiencies specialisation allows, the members of the EU work together as a group to enrich every member. For a start half of our import/export trade is with the EU. Many of the items we add value to are created from items imported from the EU and the finished product exported back there. With tariffs and custom delays the economics will work against us. Our current partners will become our competitors, and their products will be cheaper.

Ms Russell also highlights our economic weaknesses and dearth of skills. Currently businesses are employing overseas workers as these workers have necessary skills which UK citizens do not have or they are willing to do menial work and accept low wages. My favourite sidelight on this is the comment from two unemployed UK women living on benefits - benefits they regard as too low right now. Both are Leavers who want reduced immigration - but who won't waitress or serve in a shop: "They're immigrant jobs."

On the bright side, if Brexit really does lead to reduced immigration (something looking less and less likely) then this will at least force industry and business to train UK citizens to do the jobs currently beyond our collective skills, and it will force companies to pay better wages to the unskilled. Though businesses may choose instead to relocate overseas or just close. Clearly either response will lead to further economic disruption, job losses, higher prices and lower living standards, but many Leave supporters are willing to take the pain (and for their family to suffer too).

Of course, this training will only happen if immigration is reduced dramatically and employing foreigners with needed skills is strongly discouraged (forget points-based systems). Even if such measures are put in place our home-grown skilled workers may well then emigrate in search of higher wages and better living standards. Sadly, 'controlling our borders' allows us to keep people out, but it is much harder in a democracy to keep people in.

This is not another Dunkirk. We are not at war with Europe. Our retreat is self-imposed, not a desperate response to an impossible situation. It is a misguided attempt to deal with real concerns, an attempt that can only make things worse. Sadly, in this case we do not have a rich and powerful ally who can help us regroup and 'win'.