Mission Impossible

Mrs May has accepted we need a transition deal, a two year period where we continue to trade with the EU on current terms after we officially leave in 2019.

The simplest way to do this is to not actually leave until 2021. That would tick all the boxes. Unfortunately many Brexiteers would prefer to throw the UK into economic turmoil rather than risk putting off leaving. They realise that the longer we delay the fewer will want to leave. They were handed a surprise gift by Mr Cameron (did you see their faces when they found out they had won?), if they let go of it for an instant they fear it will be gone.

So if we can't do this sensibly, we will need to do it the hard way - recreate what we have.

We need to set up a (temporary) customs union, including mutual legal recognition of standards, testing and enforcement. This will also require automatic enactment of new EU regulations during the period, acceptance of current quotas and staying within the jurisdiction of the ECJ. This will need to be done in the face of stiff resistance from the Brexit headbangers.

We also have to roll over the EU free trade agreements with non-EU countries so the exact same deals apply to us, otherwise we can't have the customs union. This will require negotiation with each of the countries involved - simultaneously if we are to reach agreement before we exit. If one fails then it all fails.

But first we need the EU's agreement. Clearly it is good for us, but what's in it for the EU? If we say "it's this or it's no deal" then they will laugh politely. Their big concern won't be lost trade with the UK, it will be the precedent set by even allowing such an agreement. For example, the EU-South Korea trade agreement states that the EU must offer South Korea the same deals they offer anyone else.

Altogether something that even Impossible Missions Force would baulk at.

Mrs May knew triggering Article 50 started the countdown.. It would be great to have more time, but she needs to approach and prioritise negotiations assuming that we only have the time she chose to give herself.