Thursday, 9 November 2017

Austerity generation

Cuts to universal credit and tax credits will push a million more children into poverty, with families losing around £20 a week, while living costs continue to rise. Growth and productivity are low with little immediate prospect of improvement, keeping wages down. Tax revenues are falling, forcing the chancellor, Mr Hammond, to join the rest of us in increasing his borrowing - though in his case he is putting an extra £16 billion on the Treasury credit card. There goes his Brexit contingency fund.

We can't keep borrowing - and someone will even now have to pay our huge bills. Our children are likely to be the austerity generation if we don't reign ourselves in sharpish.

Unfortunately, Mrs May is in a precarious position, heading a minority government supported by paid-for DUP votes (current cost £1 billion). She wants to win back those Tory voters who deserted to Labour in droves. One wheeze is a tuition fee giveaway to students costing £2.3 billion each year. She is also flinging more borrowed cash at vanity projects such as HS2 (an eye-watering £40 billion) and at disasters-in-waiting such as the Hinkley Point nuclear plant.

Meanwhile she is vainly attempting to contain the Sexminster scandal, with her ministers exposed as dirty old men eager to exploit their power over nubile underlings, while her foreign secretary (that's the one who got his mistress pregnant) makes off-the-cuff remarks resulting in threats of jail time for an innocent British citizen (Mr Johnson hasn't even the decency to admit he was wrong, let alone spend time on upping his game).

Rather a relief then to hear reports that our feelings of well-being haven't gone down since last year - in fact they have gone up a little bit in England, while holding steady in the rest of the UK.

Hold on a minute, though. Looking at the figures since 2011 shows that well-being has been rising steadily every year. However, the past couple of years have seen that rise slow right down.

Our feelings of well-being depend upon our financial security, our job and our health. Right now we can borrow virtually interest free, we nearly all have jobs, and the NHS is just about coping.

Things are changing. Interest rates are starting to go up, companies are starting to go bust, the NHS is starting to cut services. Things will get tougher even if Brexit is defeated - these challenges need to be addressed whatever happens.

It is the government's duty to lead change and to make it as painless and as smooth as possible. It is questionable whether the shambolic remains of Mrs May's government are up to the job in front of them.

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