What will happen if we do exit the EU without a deal?
The closest parallel example is probably what happened to NZ when the UK joined the EEC. At that time the UK took 30 % of NZ exports.
Currently the EU takes over 50% of UK exports.
The NZ exports to the UK had preferential customs and duty treatment ('imperial preference'). This could not continue once we were in the Common Market. We had to impose duties on NZ produce.
If we leave the EU without a deal then our European customers will have to impose duties on our exports - we pay no duties at the moment.
NZ exports fell sharply, as did business investment. Growth slowed, and it took 15 years to return to its previous rate.
Business investment has already fallen massively in the UK, with a number of firms disinvesting, and we haven't even left yet. A recent survey showed finance and service companies are planning job cuts. Meanwhile car manufacturers are already pulling out. Nissan is the most recent - announcing the closure of the Sunderland plant which they ploughed £250 million into only a couple of years ago. They are moving production to Japan, as the EU and Japan have just concluded a trade deal which will mean low tariffs for car exports, while Brexit may well mean high tariffs on cars made in the UK.
New Zealand moved its trade to countries nearer to it - ironically making trade easier and cheaper than when exports had to go half way round the world.
We will have to trade further afield, adding to transport time and costs.
Given that we don't even have a plan for Brexit, we should take May's deal and sort things out carefully over the next few years rather than jump off a cliff while keeping our fingers crossed.
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