Sunday, 27 January 2019

A pragmatic Brexit

The EU is pragmatic and understands that the UK crashing out of the the union will be damaging to many of its members. This has been the bedrock of Brexiteer strategy - if we play tough then the EU will finally roll over.

Certainly, it seems to have done this before - look at Greece and its flouting of the economic rules, yet the EU still bailed them out. Well, if you do look carefully, you see that Greece had to completely capitulate to EU demands in order to be given the bail out - and the bail out was in the EU's wider interest, preventing a member from collapsing and quite likely dragging others down with it.

What about Germany and France breaking the EU fiscal rules they had insisted on themselves and escaping punishment. Instead of fining them, the rules and penalties were changed.

This is a good example of forward looking policy. If a big player who sets rules then breaks those rules it is time to look at retuning the rules and how they are enforced. Next time the rules are less likely to be broken.

What about the bespoke deals with non-EU members such as Switzerland and Norway, even the Ukraine (free movement of goods without free movement of people)?

If a country is going to join in the future then why not tempt it in with some special deals? Even your local TV shop does that.

In each of the above cases the pragmatism of the EU was clear.

With Brexit, however, we have a country leaving the EU. This time there are serious disadvantages to the EU if they sweeten the deal. This would make leaving more attractive for other members, and joining less advantageous for non-members. The swell of nationalism in Europe makes generosity even more dangerous. Being forward-looking the EU27 negotiators know they have to be intransigent.

It is important also to understand that the rest of the EU don't want us to leave. The reason they don't want the UK to leave is that Brexit will be bad for them economically. This is why they are willing to break-and-rewrite rules to allow us to stay in. This is why they are willing to offer a transitional period. This is why they are willing to renegotiate all the trading arrangements.

They are willing to do all this because they understand these things will benefit them. If we try to strong-arm them into expensive concessions then they will refuse, even if it means no deal. Hence, for example, their refusal to allow a leaky border in Ireland. We are one country, they need to keep 27 others together and encourage more joiners. If that means absorbing the costs of a chaotic Brexit then they will.

What a pity that our own politicians are not as forward looking as them. With only a few weeks to go we still can't agree on our plan for Brexit - forget dealing with the aftermath.

Mrs May's deal gives even the most rabid Brexiteers what they initially asked for. It would be up to them to keep the momentum going if they want to isolate us further. Trying to force us out without any deal by demanding everything now shows they understand that the country has turned against their vision.

It is now up to the many politicians who want the best for Britain - they need to get behind the deal.

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