What trade deal?

Mrs May has said that she wants a Free Trade Agreement with the EU to be in place before we leave. However it is looking more and more likely that this won't happen. The emphasis in the time remaining will have to be on the broad relationship. Once this has been decided then the details of trading in each industrial sector can be addressed.

What would this mean? It is hard to know. Mrs May wants an "implementation period" post-Brexit "to put in place the practical changes". However, if trade terms have not been decided in detail then we will be trading with the EU on WTO terms. There is little chance that the implementation period could also be a "transition period" with all our current access to the EU markets. The complexity of such a deal would require a far more experienced negotiating team than we have, and far more leverage than we can bring to bear.

On the other hand, even having a FTA is no substitute for our current status within the EU customs union.

There is another serious issue and Dr Fox, our trade secretary, needs to deal with it quickly. Currently we share WTO quotas with the EU. Our plan was to split those with the EU when we leave, but other WTO countries such as NZ and the US want larger quotas to make up for the newly divided market.

Even if we negotiate a deal with the EU we will be trading with everyone else on WTO terms. If we annoy WTO members then they can punish us in a number of ways. For example the WTO determines allowable internal subsidies (such as support for farming). We also need to join its Government Procurement Agreement, worth £1.3 trillion to the UK. This needs the approval of all 19 members of the GPA.

If we have a deal with the EU (which takes 50% of our current exports) then we can afford to stand our ground with the WTO. If we fall off the Brexit cliff then we will be going cap in hand to the WTO.