Friday, 25 August 2017

Trade deals

The USA seems to be the main hope for a post-Brexit trade deal - rather a concern when we consider who the current president is. In terms of insularity you could argue that his world view matches that of the anti-immigration campaigners who supported Leave, however Mr Trump's focus is on the USA (well, mostly himself but the USA after that), so why would he favour a deal with us?

The Gropenführer (his bedside reading includes a book of Hitler's speeches) has said NATO members have to be fully paid up if they want US troops to defend them. Fair enough, he isn't providing any discounts even if it is the the best interests of the USA. This may prove problematic of course when it comes to trade - he believes the USA has "some of the worst trade deals ever in history". So we shouldn't expect any favours.

He is also rather unreliable, with fake news, false promises (shades of the Brexit campaign) and U-turns (Mrs May would be proud). Our own Mr Johnson claimed we would be first in line for a deal, but Mr Trump has now put the EU first (the EU that we are currently in but are leaving). Hardly surprising as USA-EU trade is around eight times bigger than USA-UK trade.

Though it may be a blessing in disguise if we fail to do a deal. Chlorine-flavoured chicken, hormone-soaked beef, GMO foods, NHS privatisation, higher drug prices - these are all likely consequences of a deal.

Still, with Mr Fox saying that we will need a two-year transition period and given that negotiations can't start till after that finishes, maybe we will be dealing with a new president anyway.

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