Cake

Mrs May has told we that we can either eat cake - or go hungry.

Mrs May's Brexit negotiation strategy is based on the idea that we can keep the benefits of being in the EU without the costs - the "have our cake and eat it" principle.

Her alternative is to crash out of the EU and start trading with them under WTO rules - "no deal is better than a bad deal". However we still don't have a plan for that.

So is it likely? Do we really need a plan? Surely Mrs May will want to make at least a basic agreement. Of course she does - on her terms. If the EU won't agree to those then it is no deal.

Why is she doing this? Essentially it is a negotiating tactic to try to prevent the EU from whittling down what they will agree to. The same tactic can be used in human relationships - "if you don't [insert demand here] then I will [insert threat here]". However the tactic only works if the threat is believable, it is certain you will carry it out, and the outcome would be worse than agreeing to the demand.

So is the threat believable? Well, Mrs May has made some efforts in that direction - in particular her fight to prevent Parliament having any say. This means the EU cannot bank on MPs over-ruling her.

However, if she really does want a good deal then she needs a clear, public plan for falling off the cliff. Without a believable, detailed WTO plan to point to when challenged it would be sensible for negotiators to assume it was just a bluff.

In other words, the only reason to not have a (public) plan is if the intention is to crash out regardless.

Would the UK defaulting to WTO rules be worse for Europe than Mrs May's demands? This is impossible to say right now - her demands are clear (no ECJ, no free movement) but we have no idea what she is prepared to actually negotiate on.

Already our Ambassador to the EU, Sir Ivan Rogers, has resigned, warning that the UK has little negotiating experience and that our Brexit strategists don't want to hear anything negative.

If you hope that we can negotiate a controlled exit from the EU then - ironically - you should be demanding a detailed plan for what happens if we fail.