Why have an election?

Reports that Mrs May has ruled out an early election should be no surprise. This has always been her line. So why are senior Tories lobbying for one?

Their argument is that social conditions in the UK's are getting worse and will continue to slide due to the economic slowdown being caused by Brexit uncertainty:

Social care
Age UK have just published a report showing how the care system is failing the elderly, with 1.2 million given no support at all - a 48% increase since 2010 - due to spending cuts of £160 million.

Care homes are suffering. Already private payers are subsidising council-funded residents by paying up to 43% more for the same care. But this is unsustainable and nearly one in eight care homes fear they will have to close within the next three years. A leading provider, Mears, has already cancelled three contracts due to "unworkable pay and conditions for care workers”. Panorama found a quarter of care homes risk insolvency - 69 have closed in the last 3 months - with cost pressures and severe recruitment difficulties proving too great.

NHS
The NHS has reduced beds by 20% over the past decade, and will keep cutting - aiming to cut budgets by another £22 billion before 2021. Already four out of five hospital trusts are putting patients at risk due to cuts.

However, it isn't just NHS budget cuts that are causing this. The social care crisis has meant the NHS is now funding 16% of social care, up from just 2% ten years ago, and this is far more expensive than care delivered in the community. For example, one fit but elderly lady had to stay in hospital for six months, at a cost of £80,000, simply because no care home place could be found for her.- another patient blocked a hospital bed for 508 days for the same reason.

Benefits
Disability benefit is being cut again, on top of Osborne's cuts last year, this time aimed at cutting support for people with psychological problems -  shades of Mrs Thatcher's "care in the community".

Infrastructure
The Department of Transport is forecasting an overspend on new roads of nearly £1 billion, with 16 projects at risk or not value for money and likely to be cancelled. Meanwhile maintenance of the existing road network is being neglected - 26% of A-roads may be providing inadequate skid resistance, leading to more accidents.

Blame Brexit?
Note that none of these have anything to do with Brexit. Clearly governments have been underfunding for years. The fear is of the effect of the economic hit over the next few years as we adapt to being outside the common market. With even less money to hand out, we are in for some difficult decisions - and this government will get the blame.