Garden Sheds

Garden Sheds

The weak pound is starting to show up in the price of imported goods: timber is up 14% since the referendum, putting (for example) garden shed prices up by 10%; wireless speakers (from Sonos) have gone up 18%.

Overseas investors are disinvesting, disposing of £7.6 billion of UK government bonds. 2,000 job cuts were announced today by US-owned businesses.

The national debt is £1.6 trillion and rising, with a deficit of £68 billion forecast this year.

But, just a minute! The weak pound means our exports could become more competitive, job losses could be made up for by deporting foreign workers such as nurses, so freeing up their jobs for locals, and we have managed with a national debt for centuries.

So why worry?

Well, it depends upon what is important to you. If you are well off then it's the rising cost of holidays abroad and those imported luxuries you like. If you are just about managing then it is your standard of living. The UK will be fine outside the EU, but we are going to have to tighten our belts. Taxes are going up - local and national - while services will be cut. House prices are still rising at 4.5% annually, with wages failing to keep up (2.6% growth last year and falling).

Forget Project Fear, this is Project Here. This is happening, and a lot of it has nothing to do with Brexit. At least, not so far. The referendum hit the pound hard, but care costs and house prices were bound to rise anyway. Care has to be paid for, so taxes were sure to go up.

The real question is how do we achieve Brexit while keeping the economic pain manageable? Leaving the EU is a big extra expense, and the cost isn't just the one-off admin. In fact the effect on our on-going GDP will be greater - and could be much greater. That is why Parliament needs to be involved in the negotiations, that is why we should have a voice in the decision, so that we, the people, are not sacrificed to a political idea.