Get out and vote

Why has Mrs May done another U-turn? She has repeatedly said that she will wait until 2020 before calling a general election, yet yesterday she announced she wanted to hold it in just a couple of months.

The first question is why she wanted to wait. The Tories have only a slim majority in the Commons. With UKIP imploding, Labour riven by internal divisions and the Lib Dems yet to recover from their own leadership debacle, and with the Conservatives being the only party clearly supporting Brexit, it seemed obvious to some that a post-referendum general election would see a landslide to the Tories - a ringing endorsement of Brexit. However Mrs May knew there were - and are - big risks.

When Mrs May became leader of the Conservatives a general election had taken place only the year before. Had Labour support fallen quickly enough to cost them seats? Would the success of the Leave campaign mean emboldened Tory voters switching to UKIP? Would worried voters support Lib Dem as the reality of Brexit started to dawn on them? Remember that the Conservative manifesto pledged to keep us in the single market. Comparing the 2015 general election results with the referendum results it was Labour areas (bar London) which voted Leave while Tory areas voted Remain.

Linked to this was the fact that only a third of the electorate had actually voted Leave - a third voted Remain and a third didn't vote. Older people were more likely to vote, and were more likely to vote Leave. The turnout for the referendum was greater than for the previous general election, but how many people did not vote because everyone expected Remain to win? How many cast a 'protest vote' and regretted it? Mrs May had already said no to a second referendum. A general election would have been (and will be) on the single issue of Brexit - as Mrs May acknowledged yesterday.

So what has changed her mind?

Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland remain lost to the Tories but it is the English constituencies (533 MPs of 650 in total) which will determine our next PM. UKIP and Labour continue losing support, sinking deeper into the mire of factional politics, while the Lib Dems have yet to find an identity. Given the choice of Mrs May or Mr Corbyn for PM over half of Labour voters chose Mrs May. So it seems that voters won't want to punish her for Brexit.

Meanwhile, Mr Corbyn has announced Labour will only support a Brexit deal that includes “unfettered access” to the European market. As this is not on offer he is essentially saying Labour will not support any achievable deal. Add in the hard right Conservative Eurosceptics who also want a Hard Brexit and suddenly Mrs May has a problem.

To get her negotiated deal past Parliament she will have to ensure she has enough votes. At present that gives her some unappealing choices. She could appease the Eurosceptics by negotiating a deal little better than a unilateral withdrawal. She could try to buy votes from the SNP, but the price would be very high - Ms Sturgeon wants Scottish independence. In Northern Ireland Sinn Fein/DUP/SDLP will be most concerned over the closure of the border with the Republic, so free movement will be top of their wish list.

Mrs May knows that repeating 'Brexit means Brexit' is no longer enough. She can no longer hide. She needs a decisive majority if she is to achieve what she wants. Negotiations in Europe are going to be hard enough without special interests back home holding her to ransom. So she is staking everything on this roll of the dice.

My hope is that the Conservatives will not gain those needed seats, that instead the Lib Dems will regain the ground they have lost and become the party Mrs May has to work with. They may not be able to stop Brexit but at least they understand how important Europe is to the UK.